Musings & Thoughts for Saturday, July 3, 2021, or: Tracking Elsa on a Dark, Rainy Florida Weekend

Hi there, Dear Reader. It’s late morning here in New Hometown, Florida on Saturday, July 3, 2021. The current temperature is 79˚F (27˚C) under light rain . With the wind blowing from the west at 8 MPH (13 KM/H) and humidity at 76%, the heat index is 79˚F (27˚C). Today’s forecast calls for scattered rain showers and a high of 86˚F (30˚C). Tonight, scattered showers will continue. The low will be 75˚F (24˚C). Today’s Air Quality Index (AQI) is 37 or Good.

I have been up and about for several hours. I almost woke up at 5 AM when I had to get up to “use the facilities,” but even though it took me a while, I managed to doze off for another 90 or so minutes before getting up for good between 6:45 and 7 AM. I usually don’t sleep past 6:30 AM; my body clock is simply not “set” so that I can sleep in until 9 or 10 AM. But because the day is so dark and dreary – and because I still have a cold – I have not done much besides putter about on Facebook and keep a wary eye on Tropical Storm Elsa updates.

And speaking of the devil, here is the latest public update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

…ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA…

…CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…16.5N 70.3W

ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ABOUT 440 MI…710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the

border with Haiti

* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern

border with the Dominican Republic

* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince

* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to

Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,

Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to

Bahia de Manzanillo

* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the

Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should

monitor the progress of Elsa.  Additional watches and warnings

will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

———————-

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsawas located

near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 70.3 West. Elsa is moving very

quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h).  A decrease

in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a

turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast

track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later

today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern

Cuba on Sunday.  By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central

and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today, but slow

weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to

be near or over Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125

miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane

conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are

possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide

levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow

within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet

Southern coast of Hispaniola…2 to 4 feet

Jamaica…1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact

Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with

localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to

isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to

8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected

Saturday into Sunday.  This rain may lead to scattered flash

flooding and mudslides.

Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday,

rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15

inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding

with mudslides in Cuba.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys

and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with

localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may

result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the

Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.

Judging from the information in this advisory, it looks like most of Florida is going to feel the effects of Elsa over the next few days. My old neighborhood in Miami-Dade will probably experience really bad weather as early as Monday or Tuesday, but we’ll get some of Elsa’s wind and rain here in New Hometown later on, too. Hopefully the storm won’t intensify after making its way through the Greater Antilles, but even tropical storms can cause power outages and flooding.

Ugh. I hate hurricane season.

I don’t think I’ll be online much during the day. The forecast for today is, as noted above, not exactly one that lends itself for any kind of outdoor activities, and even though my Weather app says it’s “just” Light Rain, it is alarmingly dark. and I’ve already heard two BOOMs of muffled but distinct thunder.

In any case, even though I took my first dose of DayQul, I have a sinus headache and a stuffy nose, so I am in no condition to sit at my desk all day, even if it is just to game, lurk on Facebook, or watch YouTube videos.

Summer colds are, as you probably know, the worst.

I’ll probably end up reading a book or listening to music on my tablet. It’s nice to have options for entertainment on a rainy day.

Well, that about wraps it up for this installment of A Certain Point of View, Too, so I’ll just close for now. Until next time, Dear Reader, stay safe, stay healthy, and I’ll catch you on the sunny side of things.