
Hey there, Dear Reader. It’s early afternoon in New Hometown, Florida on Saturday, August 14, 2021. Since it’s midsummer here in the Sunshine State, the weather picture is typical for the season. Currently, the temperature is 86˚F (30˚C) under mostly cloudy skies. With humidity at 64% and the wind blowing from the east at 7 MPH (11 KM/H), the heat index is 95˚F (36˚C). Today’s forecast advises residents to watch for scattered rain showers, and the high will be 91˚F (33˚C). Tonight, light rain is expected, and the low will be 76˚F (25˚C). The Air Quality Index (AQI) is 22 or Good.
Goodbye, Fred…Hello, Grace?

On this hot, muggy, and cloudy Saturday, New Hometown residents can rest easy. Tropical Depression Fred was downgraded to “Remnants of Fred” status this morning and is no longer a “big bad” storm threat. However, because it’s summer and the Gulf of Mexico is a large body of warm waters, residents of the Gulf Coast, including Yours Truly, should keep an eye on the Remnants of Fred[1]
Per the National Hurricane Center in Miami:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 141448
TCMAT1
REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W…DISTURBANCE
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W…DISTURBANCE
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W…TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z…DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 83.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Well, at least we here in New Hometown seem to be out of the metaphorical woods as far as Fred is concerned.

However, as I write this, another, better-organized storm is churning out in the Atlantic. Its name: Grace.
Here is the latest on that new member of the Hurricane Class of 2021:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021
…GRACE A LITTLE STRONGER…
…CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.2N 57.9W
ABOUT 265 MI…425 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano, and for the north coast from
Cabo Frances Viejo eastward to Cabo Engano.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for this area later today and tonight.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 57.9 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion toward the
west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of
Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican
Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and
Cuba on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is
likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles
Sunday night through Monday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Sunday night into Monday.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands…3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic…3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.
By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Grace is still over a thousand miles away, and I am not overly concerned about it today. I will, of course, keep track of its progress as it gets closer to Florida.
Insomnia Strikes Again

Last night I did not sleep well. The Caregiver did not serve dinner till 11 PM, and even then I had to cajole her into it because, ironically, I was getting sleepy. We had homemade chicken soup. It was decent, yes, and I am grateful that she made it, but I think the combination of my annoyance at the lateness of the hour plus the energy boost I received from the soup contributed to my bout of insomnia.
So, what did I do?
Well, I tried to lie down and fall asleep, but when that didn’t go as planned, I watched two movies – Star Trek Beyond (2016) by Justin Lin and Unfit: The Psychology of Donald Trump (2020) by Dan Portland.
At one point – I think it was around 2 AM, but I can’t be sure – I did doze off while watching the third (and for now, last) Kelvin Timeline Star Trek film. But I woke up during the film’s third act and stayed awake.
After I ejected the Star Trek Beyond Blu-ray from the player and placed it back in its plastic case, I went to my Amazon Prime Video streaming app and watched most of Unfit. It was interesting and I even got a few psychological insights not just about Trump himself but also his loyal MAGA base. For the most part Unfit doesn’t say anything that has not been said on cable news and opinions shows, but what did grab my attention is that many of the film’s interviewees are psychiatrists and mental health experts, and they basically agree on one point: Donald J. Trump clearly is not fit to be in any elective office, much less the Presidency of the United States.
I stopped Unfit before it ended and turned off my TV sometime before 5 AM in a last-ditch bid to fall asleep. I managed to take, at best, a two-hour nap, but by 8:30 AM I was up again. And, of course, now I’m tired, cranky, and wishing I was elsewhere – preferably in a house near a Denny’s or even my favorite place to eat in Miami, Arbetter’s Hot Dogs.
On this note, Dear Reader, I will take my leave of you. I still have a shower to take and some grooming to do, and I really need to get away from my desk for a while. So, stay safe, stay healthy, and I’ll catch you on the sunny side of things.
[1] Hey. Wouldn’t “Remnants of Fred” make a great name for a garage rock band?
Nice.
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