Atlantic Hurricane 2022 Season: And So It Begins….

Hurricane Patricia by NASA Goddard Photo and Video is licensed under CC-BY 2.0

Hi, there, Dear Reader. It is late morning in Fish Hawk (Lithia), Florida, on Friday, June 3, 2022. It is a gray, gloomy day in the Tampa Bay area. Currently, the temperature is 76°F (24°C) under mostly cloudy skies. With humidity at 96% and the wind blowing from the east-southeast at 3 MPH (4 KM/H), the feels-like temperature is 74°F (23°C). Today’s forecast, not surprisingly, calls for scattered rain showers throughout the day. The high will be 88°F (31°C). Tonight, thunderstorms will pass through the area. The low will be 73°F (23°C).

As you probably know, June 1 marks the start of the annual Atlantic hurricane season, and, a bit over two days into June, Floridians are keeping their eyes on a “disturbance’ dubbed by the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) as “POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.”

Here’s the latest advisory from the NHC – which, incidentally, is less than 10 minutes, as the car drives, from my old townhouse in Miami – regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone One”:

BULLETIN

Image Credit: National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service/NOAA

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022

700 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

…DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…22.4N 86.8W

ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 420 MI…675 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

Northern Gulf of Mexico by NASA Goddard Photo and Video is licensed under CC-BY 2.0

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas

* Florida Bay

* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card

Sound Bridge

* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to

Card Sound Bridge

* Lake Okeechobee

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and

Mayabeque

* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the

progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

———————-

Image Credit: National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service/NOAA

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

22.4 North, longitude 86.8 West.  The system is moving toward the

northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an

increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and

continue through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the system is

forecast to move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through

tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida

Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north

of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with

higher gusts.  The system is expected to develop a well-defined

center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight

strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and

tonight.  Additional strengthening is possible after the system

moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and

Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to

the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

Yep. It’s that time of year again. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO

header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce

heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin

to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through

Saturday, and affect the northwestern Bahamas tonight through

Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.

This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches

with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys. This

rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This

rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

in Cuba later today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday,

and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge…1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL…1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor…1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas…1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida

beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Beven

Even when I was responsible for the food shopping during my mom’s half-decade long decline and illness, I stuck to her hurricane season plans and bought bottled water (one or two gallons per shopping trip) and other essentials EVERY time I went to Winn Dixie. (Photo by the author)

When I lived in Miami with my elderly, widowed mother, the beginning of hurricane season saw us going to the nearby Winn-Dixie store to get “hurricane essentials” for the two of us. Mom was a veteran of several hurricanes before 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, so she always started buying things like bottled water, canned goods, crackers, cookies, candles, boxes of soft drinks, and batteries for our hurricane lamps around the beginning of May. That way, if a tropical storm formed and headed for the South Florida early in the season, she would not have to “panic shop” as that storm approached our area.

Here, things are not as structured. Despite my best efforts to get my ex-girlfriend and now a caregiver to adopt some of my mom’s techniques of hurricane preparation, she allows other preoccupations – like her new boyfriend (who is not so new, as they have been dating for nearly two years) – to distract her.

When I first moved here in 2016, The Caregiver listened to me at least for some things, and we were starting the “at least get bottled water and batteries” part of Hurricane Preparedness 101.

Now? Nope. Her boyfriend is not in good health since his heavy drinking resulted in cirrhosis of the liver, and he needs a liver transplant, or he’ll die. Luckily, he was approved for one and is in a Tampa area hospital waiting for a donor – which basically means that someone has to die so that he may – probably – live.

Since The Caregiver is visiting her boyfriend every day after work, of course, she is not getting any hurricane supplies. And none of the adult “kiddos” thinks about such things as hurricane prep because neither parent (the Caregiver is a widow) taught them.

So, I hope that Potential Tropical Cyclone One does not develop into Tropical Storm Alex, or, gads, Hurricane Alex[1]. We are not remotely ready for any type of tropical storm. Not in this house, anyway.

Source: National Hurricane Center, Public Advisory 3A, June 3, 2022


[1] I am not making that up!

Here’s the list of storm names for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:

Alex

Bonnie

Colin

Danielle

Earl

Fiona

Gaston

Hermine

Ian

Julia

Karl

Lisa

Martin

Nicole

Owen

Paula

Richard

Shary

Tobias

Virginie

Walter

Published by Alex Diaz-Granados

Alex Diaz-Granados (1963- ) began writing movie reviews as a staff writer and Entertainment Editor for his high school newspaper in the early 1980s and was the Diversions editor for Miami-Dade Community College, South Campus' student newspaper for one semester. Using his experiences in those publications, Alex has been raving and ranting about the movies online since 2003 at various web sites, including Amazon, Ciao and Epinions. In addition to writing reviews, Alex has written or co-written three films ("A Simple Ad," "Clown 345," and "Ronnie and the Pursuit of the Elusive Bliss") for actor-director Juan Carlos Hernandez. You can find his reviews and essays on his blogs, A Certain Point of View and A Certain Point of View, Too.

10 thoughts on “Atlantic Hurricane 2022 Season: And So It Begins….

  1. I recently read a book “how to prepare for climate change”. The book was more about natural disasters since they are getting worse with climate change. It was practical advice such as, how to survive, how protect your home, how to keep the electricity on and have clean water, evacuation check list, how to pack a to go bag, the aftermath, insurance, adjustors, etc. I focused on Texas in-land natural disasters (drought, wildfires, fresh water scarcity, tornadoes) not Florida but some of the things I remember about hurricanes is keeping an axe in the attic in case you get trapped there, evacuate before the order comes in case you have pets, prepare a to-go bag, unopened plastic bottles with water can last for years, buy hurricane proof window covers, install battery power backup located a bit higher up (keeps working when flooded), turn off power if water level reaches electrical things, and a hundred other things, but most importantly don’t live in Florida. I learned that flood insurance for a $300,000 house in Miami Beach is $20,000 per year and quickly rising. Anyway, I hope you will be safe Alex. Take care.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Yes, you are right, and the wildfires. In Dallas, we have tornadoes, which don’t seem to be getting worse with climate change, but freshwater scarcity, heat waves, and droughts are getting worse with climate change but not as badly as in west Texas where wildfires are also becoming an issue. However, Florida and California take the cake.

        Liked by 1 person

      1. You mean, these nuts?

        “The Free State Project is a movement of thousands of freedom-loving people to New Hampshire.
        Already, there are thousands of individuals just like you right here in New Hampshire. Together, Free Staters have built an incredible, real-life community full of people who value liberty and responsibility.”

        Ugh. I am beginning to think we’re living in a dystopian Harry Turtledove novel.

        Liked by 2 people

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