Musings & Thoughts for Tuesday, August 29, 2023, or: As Hurricane Idalia Approaches, the Writing Goes On (Trouble in the Tropics Edition)

Late Morning/Midday, Tuesday, August 29, 2023, Lithia, Florida

“That’s something every islander knows–there’s always going to be another hurricane. Another storm. Everything buried will surface again, and everything you thought would last forever will come down eventually. But you rebuild. You dredge. You keep moving, keep adding new. That’s how we go on living.” ― Roseanna M. White, Yesterday’s Tides

Hi, everyone.

It’s late morning here in the Tampa Bay area on this last Tuesday of August, the final Tuesday of Summer 2023.  And this being Florida and the subtropical zone of North America, it’s a torrid, sullen, and tense day. The temperature outside is 88°F/31°C under mostly cloudy conditions. With humidity at 64% and an east-southeasterly breeze blowing at 9 MPH/14 KMH, the heat index is already 100°F/38°C. The forecast for today calls for partly sunny skies and a high of 92°F/33°C, although – thanks to the approach of Hurricane Idalia, we can expect heavy rain tonight.

As for Idalia, here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023

1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE… LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY…(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY…(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  84.8W AT 29/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT……. 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.

50 KT……. 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT…….100NE 140SE  50SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE  60SW  75NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  84.8W AT 29/1500Z

AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  84.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N  84.6W

MAX WIND  90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT… 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT… 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

34 KT…120NE 150SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.3N  83.7W

MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT… 25NE  25SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT… 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT… 90NE 150SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.8N  81.7W…INLAND

MAX WIND  55 KT…GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT… 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT… 70NE 140SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.5N  78.8W…OVER WATER

MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT… 70NE 120SE  70SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.1N  75.6W

MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT…120NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.8N  73.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT…140NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N  70.2W

MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N  68.8W

MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  84.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5…AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Idalia is going to make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast of Florida tomorrow. Based on the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, the most likely location for a direct hit is the Apalachicola Bay/Big Bend area that marks the beginning of the Florida Panhandle, especially if the storm keeps heading north and doesn’t begin taking its Coriolis Effect turn to the right this afternoon or evening.

If that happens, Hillsborough County will only have to deal with the outer bands of Idalia rather than suffer the more severe effects of a full-on strike by a Category Three or Four storm. Trust me on this…outer bands are nasty and can do serious damage, mainly from flash floods caused by heavy rain and wind damage from tropical storm-strength winds and tornadoes spun off by the thunderstorm activity in those outer bands. But…a full-on visit by Idalia will do more damage than a glancing blow.

On Writing & Storytelling: Action This Day

I started writing the third scene in Reunion: Coda’s Chapter 11 yesterday afternoon, but – predictably – the distracting effects of “hurricane anxiety” prevented me from writing more than 97 new words.  

That’s better than nothing, I suppose, but I hope that I will be able to be more productive than that after my rest period. I want to, of course, and I’ll do my best to write as much – and as best – as humanly possible.

As for the existing book in the Reunion Duology, August 2023 saw a modest bump in sales, especially during the last week of the month.

Per Kindle Direct Publishing, there were processed orders – eight in the United States, and one in Spain, all from Amazon – of the paperback. Over on Kindle Unlimited, someone read five pages of Reunion. In all, unless someone buys one more copy between now and Thursday, I stand to earn $25.24 in royalties. Not enough to earn an independent living, but better than no royalties at all.

Anyway, unless the weather takes a turn for the worse today, I will stick to my regular schedule and work on Reunion: Coda.

That’s “all the news that fit to print,” my friends, so I’ll close for now. Until next time, stay safe, stay healthy, and I’ll catch you on the sunny side of things.